Drinking one or two sugary beverages daily raises the risk of type 2 diabetes by approximately a quarter, based on an analysis of more than 310,000 people. The recommendation is to limit added sugar to a maximum of 25 grams per day and sugary drinks to at most one per week. Sugar found in whole fruit falls outside this limit; the evidence is largely observational but is supported by intervention studies.
Sugary drinks and fruit juices are where you can make the most gains with the least effort. According to a large analysis of more than 310,000 people, drinking one or two sugary drinks per day is associated with roughly a 25% higher risk of type 2 diabetes compared with people who do not. That is a substantial number for something you can simply change.
The reason drinks play such a big role is straightforward: liquid sugar is barely satiating, so the calories stack on top of everything else you eat without your brain compensating for them. A guideline from a broad 2023 review is to keep added sugar below 25 grams per day and to limit sugary drinks to at most one per week. Water is the easiest substitute, but if you miss the taste, drinks with sweeteners are demonstrably better for weight and blood sugar than the sugary versions.
One nuance: sugar in whole fruit falls outside this story. The concern is specifically about added sugar, and particularly in drinkable form. Most of the underlying studies are observational, but the direction is also supported by studies in which people deliberately drank less soda, which makes the findings more credible.
Moderate evidence, 2 source(s); the direction is likely but not firmly proven.