longevitywatch

How many years does smoking cost me, and does quitting still help?

Moderate evidence

Smoking demonstrably costs years of life expectancy at the population level, but a precise personal figure cannot be given on the basis of this research. Quitting always helps, at any age: the sooner you quit, the greater the gain.

Smoking is among the largest preventable causes of premature death worldwide. GBD 2021 projections, a major international disease-burden study, show that under unchanged policy the years of life lost due to smoking will remain massively high on a global scale through 2050. Those studies do not give an exact number of years lost per individual smoker, but they demonstrate unequivocally at the population level that the damage is enormous and does not disappear on its own.

The scenario analyses examined compare a situation in which smoking prevalence stays the same with situations in which it falls more quickly. When the number of smokers declines faster, the number of years of life lost decreases measurably and life expectancy at the population level rises. Importantly, this effect also occurs when people quit at a later age. Every moment of quitting has a demonstrably positive effect.

Quitting therefore definitely still helps, even if you have smoked for a long time or are no longer young. How large the personal gain is depends on your age at quitting, the duration and intensity of your smoking history, and other health factors. The direction, however, is consistent and clear: smoking less or quitting entirely always leads to less harm compared with continuing.

An important caveat: the available data come from scenario models at the population level, not from randomised experiments on individuals. A precise figure such as 'X years lost per smoker' cannot be provided on the basis of this specific source. The causal direction, that smoking causes early death, is assessed as probably causal, but the exact magnitude differs considerably from person to person.

The evidence
1 study

All claims are based on a single source (PMID 39366382, GBD 2021-based scenario analysis). No individually randomised studies or meta-analyses are included in the supplied claims. Precise YLL figures per smoker are absent.

Last checked: June 2026 · how this was judged
Related answers

Does eating less help you live longer?

In laboratory animals the effect on lifespan is well established, but in healthy humans direct evidence is lacking. A moderate and sustainable eating pattern is wiser than extreme restriction; discuss major changes to your diet with a dietitian or doctor.

Moderate evidence

Do you actually live longer if you structurally eat fewer calories?

In laboratory animals, eating less convincingly extends lifespan, but this has not yet been demonstrated for healthy people without excess weight. If you want to benefit from what has been shown, eating moderately less or following an interrupted eating pattern are the safest, most reasonably supported options.

Moderate evidence

Is intermittent fasting worth it?

Intermittent fasting helps with weight loss and improves blood glucose and insulin, but over the longer term it does no better than simply eating less. If the fasting structure helps you stick to it, it is worth it; do not expect additional health benefits that come for free.

Yes · Moderate evidence

Which screenings and check-ups are appropriate for my age?

Which screenings are appropriate for your age varies by individual, but a few anchor points are well supported: annual mammography from age 40, colorectal cancer screening from age 45, and genetic prenatal testing for all pregnant women.

Moderate evidence

Is a low-carbohydrate or ketogenic diet good for longevity?

A ketogenic diet can help with weight problems and metabolic disorders, but for people who simply want to live longer and healthier, no proven advantages over a varied diet have been demonstrated. Those who exercise intensively may even be at a disadvantage.

Preliminary evidence

Do you live longer on a vegetarian or plant-based diet?

A high-quality plant-based diet is associated with less premature death. However, eating strictly vegetarian or vegan has not been proven to be better than a varied diet that occasionally includes meat or fish.

Moderate evidence
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